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Global sales of IE3 motors will overtake IE1 by 2018

20 August, 2014

Global sales of IE3 high-efficiency electric motors and the equivalent Nema Premium machines will almost double to more than $8bn by 2018, according to a new forecast from the analyst, IHS. With many LV motor markets becoming increasingly regulated in favour of IE2 and IE3 motors, the decline of low-efficiency IE1 motors has begun “in earnest”, says the analyst.

By 2017, the IE3 market is likely to be almost the same size as the outgoing IE1 market in terms of revenues, with the two markets moving in opposite directions. While IE3 revenues will overtake those of IE1 motors in 2017, there will still be twice as many IE1 motors being sold as IE3 motors.

Currently, IE1 motors are still the world’s largest LV motor class in terms of both revenues and unit sales, with most of these sales occurring in the Asia-Pacific, the Russian Federation and CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States), and smaller markets where no energy efficiency regulations exist.

Most other regions have been shifting out of the IE1 market since the US began the migration in 2002, and this has resulted in larger numbers of the more expensive IE2 and IE3 motors being sold than in previous years.

Typically, it takes about six years for a region to migrate to the next higher efficiency class of LV motor after the official start date, with the peak of the transition occurring in year three or four. This is true for the IE3 market, with the US and Canada currently phasing out IE1 and IE2 motors, and the European Union, Japan and China due to follow suit in 2015, late 2016, and 2017, respectively.

IHS' analysis of the global market for IE1 and IE3 motors shows revenues from IE3 machines soaring past IE1 from 2017
Source: IHS

“IE3 revenues have been growing at three-digit rates since 2010,” reports IHS analyst, Mark Meza, “as the current IE3 markets are fortuitously located in regional markets that have been quick to recover from the global recession, and have not experienced further economic difficulties as seen in the IE2 markets of the European Union and Brazil over the past few years.

When comparing the sales of IE1 and IE3 motors over time, “it is clear to see the revenue-enhancing effect of energy efficiency regulations that operate independently of the market’s demand,” Meza adds.

IHS expects high revenue growth in the IE3 market to start cooling off significantly in North America just as it begins to heat up in the Eurozone, Japan and China – barring any further major economic downturns.

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